Analysis: A nuclear incident in the Arabian Gulf during the current Israeli strikes against Iran could have devastating consequences worldwide
Recent events have shown the very real potential for a nuclear incident in the Arabian Gulf. This could have devastating consequences, not only for the region but for global energy markets, including Ireland. Qatar is one of the world’s top suppliers of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which powers homes, industries and heating systems across Europe.
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From RTÉ News, Israel strikes Iran's nuclear power facilities
Current ongoing research by researchers from DCU and international partners looks at how a nuclear incident at facilities in Iran or the United Arab Emirates could affect Qatar’s water supply, trigger mass labour shortages and cause a ripple effect in global energy prices and availability. Here’s what you need to know.
Why Qatar energy supplies matter to Ireland
Qatar is the second-largest exporter of LNG globally. Its gas helps power electricity grids and heating systems across Europe, especially since the war in Ukraine disrupted Russian supplies. In February 2025, the European Union imported approximately 1.1 billion cubic meters of LNG from Qatar. If Qatar’s exports were halted, even temporarily, gas prices across Europe, including in Ireland, could surge.
And this isn’t a far-fetched scenario. Qatar lies between two operating nuclear power plants: Iran’s Bushehr and the UAE’s Barakah. A nuclear accident at either site - whether caused by error, natural disaster or deliberate attack - could send airborne radioactive fallout towards Qatar within six to 24 hours, depending on the winds. Radioactivity in the seawater could take from 10 days to travel, depending on the time of year, but given the shallow nature of the Gulf, could persist a lot longer.
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Qatar doesn't have rivers or significant groundwater so almost all its drinking water comes from seawater desalination. These facilities are located on the coast and are vulnerable to radioactive fallout if an accident occurs nearby.
The desalinated water doesn’t just serve homes, but is also used to cool energy plants and keep industrial processes running, including LNG production. If the seawater is contaminated, these plants can shut down. No water means no gas exports.
What happens If there’s a nuclear leak?
Based on computer models, the fallout from a nuclear accident could contaminate Qatar’s seawater quickly. Even though desalination plants (which are mainly based on either thermal or membrane processes) can remove radioactive elements from the seawater and produce safe water, managing the waste becomes difficult.
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From RTÉ News, Iran's nuclear programme has long been of interest to the west
The sludge and brine left over could themselves be dangerously radioactive, and require further advanced treatment to make it safe. Longer-term, radioactive particles could settle in Gulf sediments, poisoning marine life and water for decades. Fish could become unsafe to eat, and water supplies would need constant monitoring.
Even if no infrastructure is damaged, fear alone can cause chaos. The 1990 Gulf War saw millions of foreign workers flee Kuwait, even though many facilities were intact. In Qatar, 85% of the population is made up of foreign workers. If a nuclear incident occurs nearby - even with minimal actual exposure - the fear of radiation could cause a similar mass exodus.
In light of the current conflict, many companies in Qatar have advised their staff not to travel until further notice, and Qatar authorities have started advising residents that currently radiation levels are normal. Water, gas, healthcare, and energy systems all depend on skilled migrant labour and you can't run desalination plants, LNG terminals, or hospitals without trained staff.
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The effects globally and on Ireland
A significant accident could cause a partial shutdown of Qatar’s LNG exports for weeks or months. We modelled the effect that a 50% reduction in LNG production over a 3 month period would cause, and found that it could trigger a 48% rise in global LNG prices; a 25% drop in Qatar’s GDP and price spikes and power shortages across Europe and Asia.
We would alse see higher inflation and reduced economic growth, especially in energy-dependent countries like Japan, South Korea, and the EU. There would be an increase in global carbon emissions, as countries fall back on more polluting fossil fuels, and more geopolitical tension, especially if key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz are affected.
Ireland relies heavily on imported energy. Rising LNG prices globally could push up household energy bills, industrial production costs and food prices. Even if the gas doesn't come directly from Qatar, the global market is interconnected - so everyone feels the shock.
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From RTÉ Brainstorm, when Ireland said no to nuclear power in Co Wexford
What should be done?
A crisis in the Gulf won't stay in the Gulf. Our energy bills, food prices, and economic stability are tied to what happens in faraway places like Qatar so action needs to be taken
Regional safety oversight: Countries around the Gulf need a shared nuclear safety authority to coordinate responses and emergency planning.
Investment in infrastructure: Desalination systems must be upgraded to filter radioactive contaminants, and better waste treatment and disposal systems must be developed.
Workforce agreements: Gulf countries should establish agreements with labour-supplying nations to avoid panic-induced mass departures during crises.
Emergency planning: Governments need to invest in emergency desalination units with high standard treatment that can be deployed even with infrastructure damage.
International co-operation: Organisations like the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) must support cross-border nuclear safety efforts.
A nuclear accident in the Arabian Gulf could unravel Qatar’s desalination and gas export systems, causing economic shockwaves around the world. As climate change accelerates and geopolitical tensions rise, the need for resilient infrastructure, strong safety frameworks, and international cooperation has never been more urgent.
Ireland may seem far from the Gulf, but in today’s interconnected world, no country is truly insulated. Awareness, planning, and global collaboration are key to keeping our energy secure and our future stable.
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The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
